By Yury Kot Journalist, social activist, UKRAINA.Ru Author
"It’s my 10-page forecast of Ukraine’s near future, based on facts and other things I can so far speak about only allegorically," journalist Yury Kot writes.
Making predictions is a thankless job. The most dangerous part of it is the temptation to indulge in wishful thinking or self-deception. So instead of being guided by my wishes or fears, I will try to remain unemotional and impartial. I’ll only stick to the facts and possible scenarios for what comes next.
Two landmark events occurred over the weekend, which will shape the course of events not only in Ukraine, but throughout the world: a G20 meeting in Australia and a protest rally in Bratislava. The first witnessed some unpleasant but remarkable events involving Vladimir Putin. The second was attended by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. And then the two men each made statements, as an afterthought. In an interview with the German TV channel ARD, Putin warned the world about the danger of rising neo-fascism in Ukraine, while Poroshenko declared that Ukraine was prepared to war with Russia.
These two statements were preceded by events in Australia and Slovakia. Thus, cold and danger were in the air on the warm continent, so thick you could cut them with a knife. The US and its puppets (now it’s clear where the trillions of dollars went, turning the US into a giant debtors’ prison for ordinary Americans) staged a “show bashing” for the leader of the Russian world. They acted downright boorishly, doing all they could, first, to anger the imperturbable and enigmatically smiling head of the Russian Federation, and second, to endear themselves to the host with his million-dollar smile.
It seemed that all of these events were designed to mask the very core of the event. It cannot be ruled out that the highlight of the meeting was the “umpteenth” warning delivered to the US to abandon its unipolar policy in the world. The Russian leader repeatedly highlighted the need to act within the framework of the law and agreements that have been reached. Finally, I think I understood what was meant. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a great deal of agreements and arrangements have been signed and reached, including a treaty recognizing Russia as its successor state and the inheritor not only of its debts but also of its influence, and a treaty guaranteeing that there will no be eastward expansion of NATO. Essentially, Russia reminded the US about that the world is multipolar. And it did so not on its own, but with its allies, the BRICS countries, including China, Brazil, and India, as well as Argentina, and Eurasian Union countries. Taken together, they account for more than half the world’s population and most of its resources.
Obviously, Putin went there to listen, not to talk. And his natural response, including yawning and refusing to stay for breakfast, spoke volumes: He was fed up. He was fed up not with the countries or their people, but with their leaders, the protégés of the United States. And so he chose to socialize with ordinary people, instead of their rulers, thanking the police officers who escorted him, for example.
Now we should expect a scene change, with new unpredictable actions and decisions aimed at isolating “the lion in the cage,” in Anatoly Vasserman’s apt expression – in the Middle East, in the economy, and everywhere else.
It didn’t take long to see. Units of Iraqi armed forces pushed Islamic State fighters from out of the Baiji oil refinery. In fierce fighting, Iraqi troops and Shiite militias not only broke the siege of the refinery, but also drove IS fighters from the enterprises they had surrounded.
The government forces’ success was due not only to the concentrated use of aircraft and artillery, but also the fighting skills of the Iraqi military, which have improved recently according to observers. Why is it so, after all?
I personally don’t give a damn about the US. I’m worried sick about the fate of Ukraine and its misled people.
So, my dear, precious, and misguided radical Ukrainians, here is the most unpleasant piece of news for you: It’s curtains for you. It’s curtains for everyone flashing Nazi salutes, everyone obsessed with the idea of the great Uke nation, everyone who hates, snarks, and kills. It’s curtains for these tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
First, what has remained of Ukraine will be divided into three regions: Novorossiya (including Transnistria), Central Ukraine, and Galicia (without Subcarpathian Rus). I believe that these borders are clear to everyone and have more or less been delimitated. Central Ukraine, which is now waging war in the southeast against Donbas, will see enough Banderovite romance for a lifetime. Armed gangs will not only rob, rape, and kill, they will start ruling according to the historical law of justice. And by the way, this is already happening, except that so far, they have been thieves who look like killers; later they will be killers who look like thieves. You will immediately see the difference, as you can see it now between Yanukovych and Poroshenko/Yushchenko.
This division of Ukraine is necessary if only to brainwash these deranged Ukrainians (incidentally, reasonable Ukrainians are in the majority, but they remain silent) and cleanse their brains of neo-Nazi ideas, as was done in Germany in 1945 according to the same scheme: FRG-GDR.
Second, Novorossiya’s lands, being the least contaminated by Nazism, will be quickly Russianized, naturally. It will not formally join Russia. There is no need for that.
It will be the second largest state in Europe by size (at minimum, eight regions). In terms of resources and intellectual potential, these regions can make rapid strides toward well-being and self-sufficiency.
If anyone is still concerned about international recognition and being able to go to Disneyland, let me disabuse you: It’s all bullshit. Transnistria’s experience is very instructive in this respect.
I recently visited this wonderful country. Ukraine, led by Kiev, is strongly reminiscent of Moldova, while Novorossiya is reminiscent of Transnistria, except that Novorossiya has a common border with the Russian Federation. And this is a very substantial difference, trust me. Facing a total blockade from all sides, Transnistria works economic miracles. The average wage in Moldova is 3,273.5 lei and in Transnistria it is 3,606. The average pension in Moldova is 936 lei and in Transnistria, 1,240 lei. Housing maintenance and utilities fees in Moldova are almost three times higher. Now think what will happen when Transnistria, as part of Novorossiya, also gets an open border.
And here is yet another significant fact. Russia in the early 1990s under Yeltsin and Russia today under Putin are two completely different countries.
By the way, the US, which you are so fond of, refused to recognize the Baltic states as part of the USSR for 40 years after the war. So what? The US gave a big sloppy kiss to Russian leaders, while the Baltic states thrived under socialism and their representatives were even spotted on the governing board of the entire Great Motherland as long as Appolos docked with Soyuzes in space.
It will be the same here. And as for tales about Jamon, Camembert or Parmesan … it’s just freak! Your salo [hardened animal fat — ed] won’t even have time to turn rancid before practical Europe lifts its sanctions. Yes, they will continue to parade around political sanctions, but as for economic sanctions, they hate losing money, especially in such a generous country as Russia.
Now imagine that when Novorossiya puts itself on the map, Russia will simply lose interest in the rest of Ukraine, from Cherkassy to Zakarpatia. Who will you hate then?
You will never learn to love. Your patriotism is defined entirely by hatred of Russia, not love for Ukraine.
But, on the other hand, you will have the unique opportunity of going where nobody wants you, namely the EU and NATO. What? Do you still believe they are waiting for you there? You are a funny lot.
Now, without the southeast, they don’t want you, not even for free. Nobody needs a rump Ukraine, without industrial and intellectual Novorossiya, and packed with neo-fascists whom the hunger and cold will soon turn into suicide bombers or Golden Trident extremists. Quite the contrary, they will all dissociate themselves from it. And you will be left to face your yellow-and-blue karma.
What? You don’t believe me? Look at Bulgaria. Everything is so wonderful since they joined NATO that this year alone a dozen people burned themselves alive on a square in protest against inhuman conditions. Remember back in the Soviet times, under Todor Zhivkov, the glory of hospitable Bulgaria, which was always bursting at the seams with fresh fruit and vegetables, wine, and kebab? And now the economic success story of this miserable country is that tomatoes for this country are now imported from the Netherlands!
Listen to how the rhetoric of your media propaganda has changed. They are no longer shouting from the rooftops that Crimea won’t survive without Ukraine. Instead they report on the 1 billion-euro-water bill. Meanwhile, Kiev is ready to negotiate coal purchases with the Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics. They realized that it is impossible to go on lying forever. They want now to substitute one themes for another ones. Now nobody has any doubts that Novorossiya, even if it’s now just these two republics, will be able to survive without Ukraine, which has gone nuts. I think that by the spring, Novorossiya will have eight or nine regions. And you will continue jumping and killing one another. However, in two to three years, central Ukraine may wise up, after its present rulers will have stolen the last of its gold reserves, which started to disappear back in February. It was the first thing the junta did after seizing power in the coup. Criminals will be robbing you in the street every hour. They will rob and rape you and your children several times a day. Then you’ll probably start thinking you made a mistake.
In a couple of years you will see that you have neither the 5,000 euro wages, nor the 3,000 euro pension, nor the European living standards, nor any of the other freebies you had been promised to have. Instead, there will only be dirt-poor, miserable, and misguided people. Meanwhile, Novorossiya will continue to develop and flourish, because they will have that which you miserable fools fought for but never got: a country without oligarchs, with rule of law, democracy, and stability.
Then you will scream with envy and impotence, because you have destroyed a wonderful country with your own hands and because you have all been involved in the genocide of Donbas, where your husbands and children killed women, old people, and children. I am warning you now, as I warned you in December: This will happen no matter what. You will get what you deserve: poverty, suffering, cold, and misery as punishment for the tens of thousands of decent people that you killed and tortured to death.
So, sometime in 2017-18, Kiev and all of central Ukraine will realize that it’s time to get the hell out of there. But how? How can you beg those you are killing today for mercy? I don’t know. I did not betray them. I have defended them and am still defending them to the best of my ability, every hour and every minute.
As for Galicia, it will be infected with its Nazism for a long time. But Europe, which lured them so persistently, will ditch them.
You still don’t get it. They don’t need you. They only need your land. You refused to be Russian. You refused to be free. That is your choice. “To each his own” as the great authors wrote on the gates of concentration camps.
The decent people of this region may upbraid me, pointing out that not everyone is like this and that they are the majority. True, but you're actually worse than the minority. They are at least honest, and so they have the right to put you out to pasture, you sheep. You allowed them to decide for you and didn't stop them!
Here is my prediction. Before the end of 2015, the Kiev junta will be swept away. It may be replaced by even worse people with weapons in their hands, who think that a member of parliament doesn’t need an education.
Granted, there is still a tiny chance that Ukrainians will see the light. But no, it’s one chance out of 42 million, and it’s… in Rostov.
Source
"It’s my 10-page forecast of Ukraine’s near future, based on facts and other things I can so far speak about only allegorically," journalist Yury Kot writes.
Making predictions is a thankless job. The most dangerous part of it is the temptation to indulge in wishful thinking or self-deception. So instead of being guided by my wishes or fears, I will try to remain unemotional and impartial. I’ll only stick to the facts and possible scenarios for what comes next.
Two landmark events occurred over the weekend, which will shape the course of events not only in Ukraine, but throughout the world: a G20 meeting in Australia and a protest rally in Bratislava. The first witnessed some unpleasant but remarkable events involving Vladimir Putin. The second was attended by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. And then the two men each made statements, as an afterthought. In an interview with the German TV channel ARD, Putin warned the world about the danger of rising neo-fascism in Ukraine, while Poroshenko declared that Ukraine was prepared to war with Russia.
These two statements were preceded by events in Australia and Slovakia. Thus, cold and danger were in the air on the warm continent, so thick you could cut them with a knife. The US and its puppets (now it’s clear where the trillions of dollars went, turning the US into a giant debtors’ prison for ordinary Americans) staged a “show bashing” for the leader of the Russian world. They acted downright boorishly, doing all they could, first, to anger the imperturbable and enigmatically smiling head of the Russian Federation, and second, to endear themselves to the host with his million-dollar smile.
It seemed that all of these events were designed to mask the very core of the event. It cannot be ruled out that the highlight of the meeting was the “umpteenth” warning delivered to the US to abandon its unipolar policy in the world. The Russian leader repeatedly highlighted the need to act within the framework of the law and agreements that have been reached. Finally, I think I understood what was meant. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a great deal of agreements and arrangements have been signed and reached, including a treaty recognizing Russia as its successor state and the inheritor not only of its debts but also of its influence, and a treaty guaranteeing that there will no be eastward expansion of NATO. Essentially, Russia reminded the US about that the world is multipolar. And it did so not on its own, but with its allies, the BRICS countries, including China, Brazil, and India, as well as Argentina, and Eurasian Union countries. Taken together, they account for more than half the world’s population and most of its resources.
Obviously, Putin went there to listen, not to talk. And his natural response, including yawning and refusing to stay for breakfast, spoke volumes: He was fed up. He was fed up not with the countries or their people, but with their leaders, the protégés of the United States. And so he chose to socialize with ordinary people, instead of their rulers, thanking the police officers who escorted him, for example.
Now we should expect a scene change, with new unpredictable actions and decisions aimed at isolating “the lion in the cage,” in Anatoly Vasserman’s apt expression – in the Middle East, in the economy, and everywhere else.
It didn’t take long to see. Units of Iraqi armed forces pushed Islamic State fighters from out of the Baiji oil refinery. In fierce fighting, Iraqi troops and Shiite militias not only broke the siege of the refinery, but also drove IS fighters from the enterprises they had surrounded.
The government forces’ success was due not only to the concentrated use of aircraft and artillery, but also the fighting skills of the Iraqi military, which have improved recently according to observers. Why is it so, after all?
I personally don’t give a damn about the US. I’m worried sick about the fate of Ukraine and its misled people.
So, my dear, precious, and misguided radical Ukrainians, here is the most unpleasant piece of news for you: It’s curtains for you. It’s curtains for everyone flashing Nazi salutes, everyone obsessed with the idea of the great Uke nation, everyone who hates, snarks, and kills. It’s curtains for these tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
First, what has remained of Ukraine will be divided into three regions: Novorossiya (including Transnistria), Central Ukraine, and Galicia (without Subcarpathian Rus). I believe that these borders are clear to everyone and have more or less been delimitated. Central Ukraine, which is now waging war in the southeast against Donbas, will see enough Banderovite romance for a lifetime. Armed gangs will not only rob, rape, and kill, they will start ruling according to the historical law of justice. And by the way, this is already happening, except that so far, they have been thieves who look like killers; later they will be killers who look like thieves. You will immediately see the difference, as you can see it now between Yanukovych and Poroshenko/Yushchenko.
This division of Ukraine is necessary if only to brainwash these deranged Ukrainians (incidentally, reasonable Ukrainians are in the majority, but they remain silent) and cleanse their brains of neo-Nazi ideas, as was done in Germany in 1945 according to the same scheme: FRG-GDR.
Second, Novorossiya’s lands, being the least contaminated by Nazism, will be quickly Russianized, naturally. It will not formally join Russia. There is no need for that.
It will be the second largest state in Europe by size (at minimum, eight regions). In terms of resources and intellectual potential, these regions can make rapid strides toward well-being and self-sufficiency.
If anyone is still concerned about international recognition and being able to go to Disneyland, let me disabuse you: It’s all bullshit. Transnistria’s experience is very instructive in this respect.
I recently visited this wonderful country. Ukraine, led by Kiev, is strongly reminiscent of Moldova, while Novorossiya is reminiscent of Transnistria, except that Novorossiya has a common border with the Russian Federation. And this is a very substantial difference, trust me. Facing a total blockade from all sides, Transnistria works economic miracles. The average wage in Moldova is 3,273.5 lei and in Transnistria it is 3,606. The average pension in Moldova is 936 lei and in Transnistria, 1,240 lei. Housing maintenance and utilities fees in Moldova are almost three times higher. Now think what will happen when Transnistria, as part of Novorossiya, also gets an open border.
And here is yet another significant fact. Russia in the early 1990s under Yeltsin and Russia today under Putin are two completely different countries.
By the way, the US, which you are so fond of, refused to recognize the Baltic states as part of the USSR for 40 years after the war. So what? The US gave a big sloppy kiss to Russian leaders, while the Baltic states thrived under socialism and their representatives were even spotted on the governing board of the entire Great Motherland as long as Appolos docked with Soyuzes in space.
It will be the same here. And as for tales about Jamon, Camembert or Parmesan … it’s just freak! Your salo [hardened animal fat — ed] won’t even have time to turn rancid before practical Europe lifts its sanctions. Yes, they will continue to parade around political sanctions, but as for economic sanctions, they hate losing money, especially in such a generous country as Russia.
Now imagine that when Novorossiya puts itself on the map, Russia will simply lose interest in the rest of Ukraine, from Cherkassy to Zakarpatia. Who will you hate then?
You will never learn to love. Your patriotism is defined entirely by hatred of Russia, not love for Ukraine.
But, on the other hand, you will have the unique opportunity of going where nobody wants you, namely the EU and NATO. What? Do you still believe they are waiting for you there? You are a funny lot.
Now, without the southeast, they don’t want you, not even for free. Nobody needs a rump Ukraine, without industrial and intellectual Novorossiya, and packed with neo-fascists whom the hunger and cold will soon turn into suicide bombers or Golden Trident extremists. Quite the contrary, they will all dissociate themselves from it. And you will be left to face your yellow-and-blue karma.
What? You don’t believe me? Look at Bulgaria. Everything is so wonderful since they joined NATO that this year alone a dozen people burned themselves alive on a square in protest against inhuman conditions. Remember back in the Soviet times, under Todor Zhivkov, the glory of hospitable Bulgaria, which was always bursting at the seams with fresh fruit and vegetables, wine, and kebab? And now the economic success story of this miserable country is that tomatoes for this country are now imported from the Netherlands!
Listen to how the rhetoric of your media propaganda has changed. They are no longer shouting from the rooftops that Crimea won’t survive without Ukraine. Instead they report on the 1 billion-euro-water bill. Meanwhile, Kiev is ready to negotiate coal purchases with the Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics. They realized that it is impossible to go on lying forever. They want now to substitute one themes for another ones. Now nobody has any doubts that Novorossiya, even if it’s now just these two republics, will be able to survive without Ukraine, which has gone nuts. I think that by the spring, Novorossiya will have eight or nine regions. And you will continue jumping and killing one another. However, in two to three years, central Ukraine may wise up, after its present rulers will have stolen the last of its gold reserves, which started to disappear back in February. It was the first thing the junta did after seizing power in the coup. Criminals will be robbing you in the street every hour. They will rob and rape you and your children several times a day. Then you’ll probably start thinking you made a mistake.
In a couple of years you will see that you have neither the 5,000 euro wages, nor the 3,000 euro pension, nor the European living standards, nor any of the other freebies you had been promised to have. Instead, there will only be dirt-poor, miserable, and misguided people. Meanwhile, Novorossiya will continue to develop and flourish, because they will have that which you miserable fools fought for but never got: a country without oligarchs, with rule of law, democracy, and stability.
Then you will scream with envy and impotence, because you have destroyed a wonderful country with your own hands and because you have all been involved in the genocide of Donbas, where your husbands and children killed women, old people, and children. I am warning you now, as I warned you in December: This will happen no matter what. You will get what you deserve: poverty, suffering, cold, and misery as punishment for the tens of thousands of decent people that you killed and tortured to death.
So, sometime in 2017-18, Kiev and all of central Ukraine will realize that it’s time to get the hell out of there. But how? How can you beg those you are killing today for mercy? I don’t know. I did not betray them. I have defended them and am still defending them to the best of my ability, every hour and every minute.
As for Galicia, it will be infected with its Nazism for a long time. But Europe, which lured them so persistently, will ditch them.
You still don’t get it. They don’t need you. They only need your land. You refused to be Russian. You refused to be free. That is your choice. “To each his own” as the great authors wrote on the gates of concentration camps.
The decent people of this region may upbraid me, pointing out that not everyone is like this and that they are the majority. True, but you're actually worse than the minority. They are at least honest, and so they have the right to put you out to pasture, you sheep. You allowed them to decide for you and didn't stop them!
Here is my prediction. Before the end of 2015, the Kiev junta will be swept away. It may be replaced by even worse people with weapons in their hands, who think that a member of parliament doesn’t need an education.
Granted, there is still a tiny chance that Ukrainians will see the light. But no, it’s one chance out of 42 million, and it’s… in Rostov.
Source
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